Tonight's The Night For Leno

Network television's riskiest experiment begins tonight when NBC debuts "The Jay Leno Show" in primetime.

I expect to see plenty of press releases and announcements from NBC trumpeting the huuuuge ratings, calling Jay a massive hit, etc. etc.

But let's get real. Of course tonight's premiere will get big ratings. With Jerry Seinfeld as his guest, the looky-loo factor will be huge as people tune in to see what his new show looks like. Meanwhile, the competition at 10 p.m. (CSI: Miami, etc.) won't kick in with new episodes until next week, so Jay will pretty much have the timeslot all to himself.

The truth is, it won't really be possible to gauge whether the show is a hit or a miss for at least a few more months, after it's settled in and the new season is well underway. Besides, since NBC has already said they expect Jay to be beaten, and that all they're expecting is to bring in the same 5 million viewers who used to watch him in late night, the bar has been set so low that it practically redefines the whole meaning of traditional TV success and failure.

But still possible.